Predictive logistic models of citrus canker in Bella Vista and their use in the spanish citrus area
FRUTICULTURE | Moschini, R.C. - Canteros, B.I. - Marcó, G. - Cazenave, G.
Tags: Climate risk
Citrus canker, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri, is an endemic and quarantine disease in northeastern Argentina. Mid-season fruit canker intensity observations (1991-2008) in grapefruit cultivar in Bella Vista (Corrientes), were binary and ordinal categorized. From daily weather elements moisture and temperature variables were calculated in time periods beginning after accumulating 372 degree-days (DD) since 10 July, and fini-shing when the sum reached 985 DD (base Td = 12.5 °C) and from 930 DD to 1175 DD, respectively. The best logistic regression models included the effect of the interaction between DPr (days with precipitation > 12 mm) and DPTxn (days with maximum temperature ≤ 28 °C and minimum ≥ 14 °C ) with prediction accuracies of 94.4 % (binary) and 83.3 % (ordinal). Both logistic models were run in 14 sites of Spain and in Bella Vista, from 1980 to 2008. DPr was the most limiting weather factor for the bacterial expression in the spanish citrus sector, reaching a median value of zero in areas of high production. The temperature factor was clearly favorable for the disease progress. The effect of the interactive component (DPr*DPTxn) reduced dominantly to zero the probability that disease reach moderate to severe levels in Spain, differing with 51.7 % of the years in Bella Vista.